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Erin is the first Cape Verdean hurricane of the season to be named by the National Hurricane Center. Since Monday August 11, it has been evolving in the Atlantic as a tropical storm. It is moving forward at a speed of around 31 km/h, generating winds of between 60 and 110 km/h. However, according to weather observation and forecasting organizations, Erin is expected to intensify into a hurricane in the near future. Certainly before it passes close to the Lesser Antilles, expected over the weekend. A press release from the prefecture of Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy dated Thursday August 14 states: "Météo France is forecasting a strengthening of tropical storm Erin over the coming hours. Located 1,400 km east of the Lesser Antilles, its center should pass at a distance of around 300 km north of our territories. From Friday onwards, the northern islands will be under the influence of this system, which will generate winds, swells and precipitation throughout the weekend, the intensity of which will depend on the distance at which the center passes."Consequently, the Prefect of Saint-Barthélemy and Saint-Martin recommends the utmost vigilance and advises: "Stay tuned to weather forecasts and follow the authorities' instructions.Don't plan any hikes or sea outings, moor your boats, and take any necessary measures to ensure your safety."
According to Météo France, thanks to a favorable atmospheric and oceanic environment, Erin will pass to the north of the islands of Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy at a distance yet to be confirmed. Nevertheless, the organization assures: "A passage of the center of the phenomenon over these islands is now excluded. "
State services mobilized
Erin's closest passage is expected between the evening of Saturday August 16 and the first part of the night of Saturday August 16 to Sunday August 17. Saint-Martin and Saint-Barth are likely to experience a deterioration in weather conditions, the intensity of which will depend on the distance of the storm's passage.
Météo France points out that the islands of Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy are the most exposed to the passage of Erin. And it stresses that the intensity of the deterioration in weather conditions (cyclonic swell, rainstorm activity, wind) will depend on the distance at which the storm (or hurricane) passes and its intensity.
The Prefect of Saint-Barthélemy and Saint-Martin has been closely monitoring the development of Erin, which has been under surveillance by Météo-France since August 9. In coordination with the local authorities of Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy, and in liaison with Météo-France, Cyrille Le Vély has mobilized all government departments to anticipate the consequences of any change in its trajectory. He calls on everyone to be vigilant and invites the population to keep informed via official information channels.
At the same time, the services involved in monitoring and rescuing people on the island are working hard to prevent any possible crisis. At the Irénée de Bruyn hospital, the emergency plan has been rehearsed. The same applies to Stis and the Centre opérationnel territorial (COT).
For the inhabitants of Saint-Barthélemy, vigilance is the order of the day. Preparatory and safety instructions can be consulted in the Journal de la saison cyclonique 2025 (available free online on the Journal de Saint-Barth website), as well as on the Collectivité territoriale's smartphone application.
Furthermore, even if they remain at a safe distance from the phenomenon, Martinique and the Guadeloupe archipelago could be affected by a significant deterioration in sea state and heavy rainstorm activity. "What's more, although wind strength will remain modest on these two islands, the wind will take on an unusual direction (west then southwest) and could generate some impacts", says Météo France.
On Wednesday, Tropical Storm Erin continued its descent towards the west-southwest. The National Hurricane Center did not rule out the possibility of the system stopping its descent during the evening and taking a westerly course before climbing back towards the west-northwest. These forecasts are uncertain, as Erin remains a "disorganized" phenomenon. The reason it didn't strengthen on Wednesday was due to heavy sand fog, which has a "suffocating" effect, and temperatures that were too cool. However, from Thursday onwards, Erin will enter a zone of rising temperatures, which should favor its intensification. As for its trajectory, even if the forecasts are optimistic, Erin must be closely monitored by the entire population.
