An eventful hurricane season ahead

The first trends and forecasts were unveiled in early April by the University of Colorado and AccuWeather. In the Atlantic Basin, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, seasonal trends in hurricane activity appear to be significantly higher than "normal" for the period from 1991 to 2020. Based on these initial trends, activity in 2025 looks set to be fairly close to that of 2024, which was particularly turbulent and destructive. Early Beryl, Helene and Milton did not spare the Caribbean or Florida.
The forecast calls for 13 to 18 named storms, of which seven to 10 could become hurricanes and three to five could reach the stage of major hurricanes. If we look at past years, there is no strong relationship between the number of named cyclones in the basin as a whole and the impact on the Caribbean arc," comments Météo France. A single cyclone is enough to have a major impact on a territory and leave a trail of catastrophic seasons. Preparation and monitoring for the hurricane season must be identical, whatever the season's forecast activity, especially for coastal and island populations. This is all the more true for 2025, where activity forecasts are currently possibly above normal. "
In its analysis of the first forecast trends, Météo France points out that surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean are, and are expected to remain, well above normal. "This is a favorable factor for promoting a possibly more active season than normal", assures Météo France. What's more, the ENSO (El Nino/La Nina) cycle is said to be in a neutral phase before and during the cyclone season. "This configuration does not contribute to a significant trend in cyclonic activity," explain the meteorologists, who add: "High surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean are the strongest contributor to allow 2025 to be forecast as a cyclone season that may be significantly more active than normal in the Atlantic basin. "
In any case, this is only a first edition of the trends. Consequently, they are accompanied by considerable uncertainty. Updates will be published regularly between now and the official start of the hurricane season on June 1.