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Tropical wave n°31 was named potential tropical cyclone n°5 this Sunday evening by the National Hurricane Center. "The phenomenon is showing signs of organization", commented Météo France. Over the next 48 hours, it will experience conditions favorable to its development as it moves towards the Caribbean arc. The most likely scenario at present is the passage of a cyclonic phenomenon at the stage of a strong tropical storm between Tuesday morning and Tuesday night in the vicinity of Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy. The Northern Islands have therefore been placed on cyclonic yellow watch. Tomorrow, Monday, the Centre opérationnel territorial will be activated.
For this episode of deteriorating weather, rainstorm activity will be the hazard most at risk, emphasizes Météo France.
The first precipitation is expected to arrive on Monday night. They will gradually become more widespread, becoming intense and stormy throughout the day and night. Cumulative rainfall of over 100 mm in 24 hours is likely. "A slow easing of the rains should begin on Wednesday and then evacuate during the night of Wednesday to Thursday", says the Guadeloupe meteorological center.
Easterly winds will begin to strengthen during the day on Tuesday. They could reach tropical storm force values during the evening and night of Tuesday to Wednesday, as they move southeastward and then southward. Average winds of around 90 km/h and gusts to 120 km/h are therefore envisaged, should this unfavorable trajectory be confirmed.
As the system approaches, sea conditions will worsen, with east to northeast swells on Tuesday, with periods of 10 to 12 seconds, producing waves close to 3 meters or more. The swell will then take on a more southerly component on Wednesday under the effect of the wind, with shorter periods. Dampening will be gradual during the night from Wednesday to Thursday.
As a reminder, to help you prepare for the possible passage of a cyclone, the JSB supplement dedicated to the cyclone season is available for download.
https://www.journaldesaintbarth.com/images/medias/editions/special-cyclone-2024.pdf
