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Over the past week, several specialized press titles have been reporting on the consequences that certain budget cuts by the Trump administration could have on the monitoring of the hurricane season. Indeed, according to the various articles mentioned (notably by the New York Times, CBS or Patreon), the US federal agency responsible for weather, ocean and climate monitoring (NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) is undergoing massive job cuts. These cuts are part of the ideological drive behind "Project 2025", a plan drawn up by think tanks by conservative think tanks such as the Heritage Foundation," states the article published on Patreon. "This project aims to dismantle or reduce the capacities of numerous federal agencies deemed too costly or contrary to a minimalist vision of the state, with a particular focus on scientific institutions like NOAA," it is written. The cuts affect hundreds of positions, notably at the National Weather Service (NWS), a key branch of NOAA, as well as in the climate and oceanographic research divisions. "According to the author, who refers to "unsourced estimates, this operation could result in a 20-30% reduction in total staff. "According to information gathered by several US media outlets, such as the New York Times and CBS, no fewer than 800 jobs were cut overnight. Hundreds of NOAA scientists and experts have just received the news that every federal worker dreads," writes California Congressman Jared Huffman in a statement picked up, among others, by RFI. Musk's bogus mission puts an abrupt halt to vital programs. People across the country depend on NOAA for free, accurate forecasts, severe weather warnings and emergency information," adds the Democrat, who is number two on the U.S. House of Representatives Natural Resources Committee.
Risk of less accurate, later forecasts
If the move can be attributed to a desire to limit research into climate disruption. For the record, as soon as he returned to the White House, President Donald Trump notified the United Nations of the United States' withdrawal from the global pact to combat global warming. This will take effect on January 26, 2026. However, for the Caribbean in particular and the states affected by the hurricane season in general, these cuts raise some concerns.
Indeed, the National Hurricane Center (NHC), which depends on NOAA data and personnel, is likely to see its capacity diminished by a reduction in staff. As a result, real-time data collection (via satellites, buoys and hurricane hunter aircraft) could be slowed, as could the processing of forecast models. According to initial estimates published in December 2024 by Tropical Storm Risk, the 2025 season should feature around 15 named storms, including 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes (category 3 or higher), figures close to the average for the last 30 years.
As the Patreon article points out, the consequences could be manifold. As a result of less accurate forecasts, or forecasts released later than usual, the response on the ground could also be delayed.
Thierry Jimonet, head of the Guadeloupe meteorological center, sheds light on this "dossier", explaining: "At this stage, there is no official communication on the impact of NOAA's staff cuts on cyclone watch. It is therefore premature to draw any conclusions, but Météo France is obviously keeping a close eye on developments in the region and is ready to deploy palliative solutions if necessary. "
