Français
At the start of the day, the various weather monitoring organizations were forecasting the passage of cyclonic phenomenon Erin some 300 kilometers from Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy. This forecast has since been reassessed. Based on data transmitted by a hurricane hunter, the National Hurricane Center (USA) has issued a tropical storm watch for four areas of the Lesser Antilles: Antigua and Barbuda, Saba and St. Eustatius, Sint Maarten, St. Martin and St. Barthélemy. Observations suggest a passage closer to the northern islands of the Lesser Antilles.
The new forecast indicates a slightly more southerly track within 72 hours, then more westerly within four to five days," writes the NHC. The storm is expected to track west-northwest for about three days, then bend to the northwest and north-northwest. Erin could strengthen and become a hurricane as early as tomorrow (Friday August 15). It could even reach major hurricane status by the end of the weekend and early next week."
The same is true of Météo France, which points out that Erin "is now a strong tropical storm". It adds: "In terms of impact, the islands of Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy are the most exposed to Erin's passage. The intensity of the deterioration in weather conditions (sea, rainstorm activity, wind) will depend on how far away it passes."
According to Météo France, Erin has begun "a process of intensification" which should accelerate over the next 24 hours and enable it to reach hurricane status. "Erin will pass to the north of the islands of Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy at a distance of around 220 km, a distance that will be refined over the next 24 hours," says Météo France, adding: "Erin's closest passage is expected between the afternoon of Saturday August 16 and the first part of the night from Saturday August 16 to Sunday August 17."
